• The January Round Up - The standout stories in January from across the region

• Our Jazz- Malcolm and I get into it on what happend on the sidelines of NAM

  • psst…We need some help

IGAD Sudan intervention Flops again - The government of Sudan, under the de-facto leadership of Abdel Fattah al- Burhan, pulled out of IGAD, on January 20th. The government did not like the idea of rebel leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo being invited to IGAD’s most recent meet - up in Entebbe. An ultimatum for a Burhan - Dagalo face to face meeting within 2 weeks seemed to be the last straw. It's back to the drawing board for regional leaders, as the civil war rages on, having already killed 13,000 people.

Kenya enters the Israel-Palestine arena - Well, Indirectly. CIA boss William Burns was in Nairobi in January for a meeting with Kenyan government officials resulting in Kenya publicly supporting the US bombing campaign against the Houthis from Yemen. They’ve been attacking ships moving along the Red Sea, in solidarity with Palestinians. It seems Kenya hopes this endorsement will ensure US influence on the IMF. Seems to have worked; $684.7 million approved during the same time as the US officials visit. (Include video of Houthi/Yemeni protests.)

“I don’t need permission from anybody to do what we have to do to protect ourselves” - Very Strong words coming from Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, said during a speech at the country’s Annual National Dialogue council, seeming to address regional tensions with neighbors Burundi and DRC.

Uri🕵🏾

Chief, how are you? Is it too late to say Happy New Year? Nanti January has ended.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

Gwe guys will still say Happy New Year in March.(Laughing Emoji) I'm a good man.

Uri🕵🏾

2024 has been bringing the heat though, eh!😬 First day of the year and Ethiopia says

Uri🕵🏾

“I don’t want peace, I want problems, always!”

Uri🕵🏾

Then Kampala hosts NAM and G77. The way that Ugandans received the summits was, to say the least, unfriendly. Going off of social media sentiment and media coverage, there was a general feeling of “What exactly is this all about and why should we care”

Uri🕵🏾

The media coverage in Uganda was all over it, but I feel like there was a backdrop, especially outside Uganda, of “Is this thing even relevant?” I was reading a very engaging interview on this exact question, posed to Ambassador Adonia Ayebare. His position is that NAM has evolved away from its original objectives of fighting against colonialism, and staying out of the cold war West Vs. Russia pressures. And that despite some dysfunction, it has persisted to become a platform for developing countries to interact and influence their development.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

I think in all the hype around NAM, very little attention was paid to the smaller but much more directly  important side shows. 

Uri🕵🏾

Anha? Which side shows are these?

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

There was an IGAD Heads of State summit in Entebbe on January 18th. Top of the agenda was mediating peace for the civil war happening in Sudan right now + the Ethiopia - Somaliland MOU (Memorandum of agreement). It seems to have largely been a failure though.

Uri🕵🏾

Bro what exactly does IGAD do? And why would you say the summit was a failure?

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

IGAD is a regional bloc, originally created 1986 to address the effects of drought and desertification in the Horn of Africa. Its members are Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.comprises several East African Community members such as Somalia, Uganda, Kenya and South Sudan. 

Uri🕵🏾

Oh, Interesting. It didn't really strike me as a trading bloc. I usually come across it in the context of peace negotiations. It seems pretty influential.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

Since Sudan’s civil war broke out in April last year, IGAD has been trying and failing to negotiate a peace between the two fighting groups; the Sudanese Armed Forces(the official Sudanese military led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces(a rebel group led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo)

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

In this latest summit, IGAD invited Dagolo for the first time. The Sudanese army wasn't happy about that. They felt that by meeting these leaders, they were legitimizing him; inviting a rebel leader to a platform that is historically reserved for heads of state.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

After the summit, one of the outcomes was an instruction that the two should meet and hash things out. But Burhan felt such a demand was imposing on Sudan’s sovereignty,  and decided to suspend membership to IGAD altogether. The fighting goes on.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

Kati with Ethiopia, as you said, they signed a tentative agreement; an MOU as they called it, with Somaliland. It’s a self-declared state that claims it broke away from Somalia in 1991. It has its own currency and independent government. There’s a catch though - no other country in the world recognizes it as a state. That’s why you have probably never heard of it.

Uri🕵🏾

Damn! And I can understand how that lack of  recognition can cause economic and diplomatic isolation. Somaliland has a hard time accessing loans or investments from abroad, or advocate for its interests and form alliances.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

Exactly. And a collab with Ethiopia presents a solution to those problems. In order to take their economy to the next level, and solidify their status as the big dog of the Horn of Africa, they are super intent on having access to the ocean.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

So Somaliland has agreed to lease Ethiopia a 20 km stretch of land around the port of Berbera (which Ethiopia already owns 19% of) on the Gulf of Aden, for 50 years. In exchange, Ethiopia promises to recognize Somaliland as a state. Some shares in Ethiopian Airlines could be a cherry on top to sweeten the deal.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

As you’ve seen, Somalia is not having this. They still consider Somaliland as part of their own territory,  and regard any international recognition as “blatant transgression and intrusion into the independence, sovereignty and territorial independence of the Federal Republic of Somalia”

Malcolm🕵🏾

Let me put on my lawyer hat for a bit. International Law dictates that treaties can only be entered into by states. But Somaliland isn't technically a state; possible grounds to make the whole thing null and void. 

Uri🕵🏾

At the same time, with Somalia recently joining the EAC, the whole region might have to get involved. One of the provisions in the EAC establishing treaties is cooperation among the Partner States in defense and security under Article 5, and that partner states agree to closely cooperate in defense affairs as per Article 125. Ha! I can read treaties too, Mr. lawyer.

Uri🕵🏾

Although, If IGAD’s “no taking sides” stance is anything to go by, things probably won’t go that far.

Uri🕵🏾

Damn though!, there’s so many standoffs going on in the region right now. On top of the Sudan and Ethiopia moments

In a space of a week, Tanzania banned and then unbanned Kenya airways from flying into their airspace. And the tensions between Uganda and Kenya oil importation seemed to have died down but still simmering. Trouble on all fronts.