$5.6 BILLION dollars in US Aid to EA in 2023. And 1.8 BILLION of that funds a sector as critical as healthcare. East African countries cannot continue to have such leverage held over them, that can be pulled out from under them at any second, as we have seen with the new directive from the Trump administration this past week. “Our overreliance on aid has brought us to a precarious juncture where lives are at stake due to a single policy decision.” - writes Valerie Odiambo in this opinion piece for Devex. Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenya has a similar sentiment, in a viral video retweeted by Elon Musk that has now been seen more that 36 million times.

Don’t fall for the “hero vs zero” narrative when it comes to Congo. Respect Nuance - When you see conflicting reports and confusing information online about what's happening in eastern Congo, it can be helpful to know that this is often a deliberate strategy used by those involved in the conflict. They use propaganda and disinformation—spreading false or mixed-up information—to create confusion, lower people’s morale, and control the overall narrative. We at Maswali will be diving in depth into the nuances of all interested parties and their skin in the game in our next issue. The truth is never black and white. We do our best to swim in the gray.

Kampala to Mwanza in 18 hours, down from 4 days. MV Mpungu sets sail this week.🛳️ The 96 meter vessel capable of carrying 1000 tonnes of cargo will begin sailing twice a week from Port Bell in Kampala to Mwanza in Tanzania. The massive jump in efficiency could save the Ugandan economy up to $3 million within the first year of operation, according to the East African Marine Project. Yay for more productive use of Lake Victoria.👍🏾

Uri🕵🏾

Man I saw you post on your status recently that “name a more active arena(geopolitically) than East Africa right now.” I agree 100%

Uri🕵🏾

It’s been a crazy couple of months! I’ve been up and down; finally made it to an EAC summit(!) in November, and then came back to Entebbe for the holidays. All while Somaliland has had an election, Ethiopia and Somalia leaders had a meet up, the AU race is heating up for February, and Rwanda and Congo are at each other’s necks in Goma. Kwegamba! Things are hot🔥

Uri🕵🏾

Last time we spoke, we discussed how Somalia might become ground zero for a proxy war between Egypt and Ethiopia. With Egypt being one of the lead contributors to the news “AUSSOM” peacekeeping mission in Somalia, this presents a situation where Egyptian troops will be right on the border with Ethiopia.

Uri🕵🏾

And now we see exactly why that is; Egypt is threatened by Ethiopia “meddling” with their water supply, as they construct their massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD for short.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

So you know how I am a massive Fela Kuti fan? There’s this reference he makes in a song called “Water no get enemy” on how water doesn’t have beef with anyone, because everyone has to rely on it to survive. I guess he forgot to mention that water causes beef - people end up fighting over who has control and who doesn’t.

Uri🕵🏾

True. On one hand Egypt argues that they have agreements signed with the British that grant them ultimate control over the waters of the Nile. More specifically, the one from 1929 and another from 1959 that dictate the allocation of water to Egypt and Sudan and grand Egypt the Veto power stop other countries along the river from doing any development projects, like dams, without their approval.

Uri🕵🏾

Ever heard of Egyptian Cotton? The British first made these agreements to secure the production of that cotton, and now it is what the Egyptians bank on to ensure that their lifeline is not threatened; almost everyone in Egypt lives along the River Nile and it determines the survival of all aspects of Egyptian life.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

The funny thing though is that the Nile doesn’t ONLY run through Egypt. There are many other countries along the river, including Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan and South Sudan, among others. They argue that they were not involved in the drafting and signing of these treaties which unfairly put them to the side when it comes to the water of the Nile and its benefits. For example, The 1929 Agreement allocated Egypt 48 billion cubic meters and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters of annual Nile water while granting Egypt veto power over construction projects on the Nile River and its tributaries so as to impede interference on the flow of Nile waters. Imagine!

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

On the side of the Egyptians, it is easy to empathize with their fear of losing their literal sole lifeline; the Nile supplies 98% of all Egypt’s renewable (think of it as Fresh) water resources.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

While on the side of the Ethiopians, one must also recognize that their primary goal is the ability to power their country, progress and give a better life to their people. The Blue Nile’s steep rugged terrain and deep gorges made it technically challenging and expensive to set up reservoirs, canals, and pumping stations to harness the Nile’s water effectively, and when rain-fed agriculture collapsed during the droughts of the 1980s, ateh in the middle of a civil war, a perfect storm was in place for a deadly famine that killed more than half a million people.

🕵🏾

But do those treaties the Egyptians fiercely defend really still hold any water even today? Pun intended😁

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

Well, International law (Article 24 Vienna Convention on Succession to Treaties) says that such agreements continue to apply as long as there’s a willingness whether express or implied between the independent state (countries along the river basin like Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania) and the other state party to which the agreement in question applies (Egypt). Such willingness can be determined by how the involved parties conduct themselves on the matter. And the current conduct of countries in the Nile basin is far from agreement with the colonial treaty.

Uri🕵🏾

Yeah! The response of  upstream countries to these colonial treaties is…another treaty. Under the authority of the Nile Basin Initiative, a new Cooperative Framework Agreement(CFA) is coming into effect after 6 countries had ratified it by mid last year. The agreement will trigger the creation of the Nile River Basin Commission, that will enforce renegotiated allocation of the river’s water fairly among all countries in the basin, and remove Egypt and Sudan’s authority to dictate what development can and cannot be done on the river by other countries. The two aren’t too happy about that as of right now will not willingly give up that privilege.

Malcolm👨🏽‍⚖️

I think that the CFA is a step in the right direction; it's an opportunity for people to acknowledge a challenge before them, and work together to resolve it in the interest of everyone involved.  I was reading an article from a water law and policy expert and I think he summed it up nicely;

“The entry into force of the CFA will create new momentous realities which Egypt and Sudan cannot, and indeed should not, overlook or underestimate… Thus, it is for Egypt and Sudan's own interests to join the CFA, and to work in the spirit of cooperation with the other Nile riparians to manage, share, develop and protect the Nile River Basin.”